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Dr. Z's Sleepers and Busts Part 2

September 12, 2010

Ari Zyskind
Dr. Z's Sleepers and Busts Part 2

I told you I'd have it posted soon. For the Quarterback and Wide Receivers sleepers and busts predictions, click here.

Running Back

Shonn Greene (NYJ) 23.1 ADP, 100% Drafted: The Jets ran the ball 607 times last year. The next team ran 525 times. The Jets offensive line is the same as last year. Need I say more? Well, I will anyway. In the three games last season that Greene touched the ball more than 19 times, he ran for at least 128 yards every time. He scored every game. Two of those games were in the playoffs. Why do people think Ryan Mathews and Greene are equivalent in fantasy potential? Beats me.

Jahvid Best (DET) 65.4 ADP, 100% Drafted: Kevin Smith, the starter the previous two years, always produced when he was healthy. The team is better, offensively, than the past two years. Lions Offensive Coordinator Scott Linehan hates timeshares. But best of all, head coach Jim Schwartz loves Best. I mean, he really loves him: "Some people watch adult videos on their computer," Schwartz told [Yahoo! sports writer Brad Evans]. "I go to YouTube and watch Jahvid Best highlight clips. That’s what gets me going."

Matt Forte (CHI) ADP 45.7, 100% Drafted: Forte is expected to share the ball with Chester Taylor. But don't be fooled by this, or Forte's poor season last year. He has fully recovered, from an MCL strain sustained in a week 3 victory last season, after undergoing knee surgery. Forte has looked like his old self in preseason. Remember when he got taken back in the first round? Yeah, he's not going to be that good, but close enough. Take him a round earlier than he is expected to go for your 2nd RB.

LaDainian Tomlinson (NYJ) 104.2 ADP 48% Drafted: I project fantasy RBs mostly on two factors: the offensive line and the RBs chance for touches. Check and check. The Jets have one of the best o-lines, in both rushing and passing. And, shall I say it again? 607 rushes. 607. I don't care Shonn Greene is the starter. Give Greene 350 carries and look how many LT still has. Yeah. I know.

LeSean McCoy (PHI) 38.1 ADP, 100% Drafted: Younger Brian Westbrook. Expect similar numbers as Westbrook during his pre-concussion years. If you draft McCoy, hope Jon Runyan isn't around.

Jerome Harrison (CLE) 76.2 ADP, 100% Drafted: With Montario Hardesty out for the season, only Peyton Hillis remains a serious threat to Harrison's touches per game. Expect Harrison to take over and produce enough to start in deep leagues.

Carnell “Cadillac” Williams (TB) 120.9 ADP, 20% Drafted: With the release of Derrick Ward (now signed by Houston), Williams is the clear cut #1. However, he is an injury concern and high-maintenance player (in that you must watch his games in case he gets injured). Keep an eye on Earnest Graham and Kareem Huggins who will take over in the event that the Cadillac breaks down and stops running. If you draft the Cadillac, you should also consider keeping jumper cables in the trunk.

Tight End

Owen Daniels (HOU) 111.6 ADP, 100% Owned: Why Daniels is the 11th chosen TE in ESPN leagues completely baffles me. People quickly forget simple facts. Like the fact that Owen Daniels led all TEs in fantasy points after the first 8 weeks of last season. He had racked up 519 yards and 5 TDs before sustaining a season-ending ACL tear in November. Daniels has been cleared to play, and besides the opener (which he may or may not be eased into depending on Coach Gary Kubiak), should return to the Texans' version of Antonio Gates. The only difference is that this guy is going 5 rounds later.

Zach Miller (OAK) 112.3 ADP, 99% Drafted: It seems like the hype has finally left the building. After years of "should be" and "could be," fantasy owners are sick and tired of putting up with Miller's inconsistencies and under-performance. But now with Jason Campbell as the QB and not JaMarcus Russell (but you still shouldn't blame Russell. It's not his fault.) Now is the perfect time to hop on the empty wagon. If you missed out on a TE, you can wait until the closing rounds to take Miller.

Rob Gronkowski (NWE) N/A ADP, 6.7% Owned: He has caught a TD pass in all three preseason games he has played. In the past two weeks in which he played with Brady and the rest of the first team, Gronkowski caught 7 passes for 104 yards and 3 TDs. The only thing holding him back is veteran Alge Crumpler, another rookie TE, Aaron Hernandez, and Coach Bill Belichick's affinity for multiple TE sets. He is worth a flier if your TE goes down or flat out stinks in the first few weeks.

Kicker No such thing as a "sleeper" kicker. See Rule #5.


Running Back

Ryan Mathews (SD) 25 ADP, 100% Drafted: San Diego ran for 3.3 yards per carry last year. Vincent Jackson is out. That means defenses can add a player to the box to help stop the run. I know Mathews is fast, great between the tackles, and can catch out of the backfield. But really? He'll be lucky to crack the top 20 RBs and will only do so if Head Coach Norv Turner has to turn to him loose for 350 carries and a disproportionate number of Red Zone carries, risking injury later in his career. Don't expect Norv to be so foolish.

Any New England RB (specifically Laurence Maroney): I have been guilty of drafting the likes of Sammy Morris and Laurence Maroney before. But not again! As much as I love the Patriots, I can't stand their backfield for fantasy purposes. Belichick will spread the carries among BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Fred Taylor, Laurence Maroney, Kevin Faulk, Sammy Morris, and Zack Morris. Just when you think you've got the coach figured out, he'll switch it up on you. Trust a Pats fan and don't bet on any of them.

To all you fantasy owners out there, good luck. And may the best teams win.

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