Betting on the Super Bowl

With $300 worth of loose change in my online sports betting account I figured I would do the responsible thing… and bet on the Super Bowl. After all, betting on the Super Bowl is about as American as apple pie, obesity, and sub-prime mortgages. Much like the great Warren Buffet made a reputation of buying low and selling high, I’ve developed a similar masterful strategy to stay a step ahead of the sports betting curve. Rather than betting on the actual game, I decided to stake my winnings on the superfluous strings of events that accompany this great American spectacle. Here is a list of the propositions that were available to me. To make this fun for the whole family I’ve decided to take the “two truths and a lie” route. Eight of the following ten scenarios are real-life Super Bowl XLIII wagers via Las Vegas and online sports betting. In addition to giving you the spreads (what you would win/what you would lose), I provide in-depth, “expert” analysis on the current lines leading up to the game. Can you guess which bets are “fact or crap”? Which three bets did I wager on?...

A) Wager is on what Commercial will be the highest rated on the USA Today Annual Super Bowl Ad Meter. Anheuser-Busch / Budweiser 10/13 Go Daddy.com 17/2 Pepsi 15/4 Coca-Cola 21/4 McDonald's 29/4 Doritos 17/4 Other 9/4

Analysis: The college student in me wanted to wage for yet another Budweiser sweeping. But then again, even the timeless montage of a horse and Dalmatian galloping to the tune of Rocky can get old… After all these years you would think that horse would have kicked the bucket or thrown in that proverbial towel. Come to think of it… I’ve got a great Elmer’s glue ad in mind.

My Pick: Other

B) Super Bowl XLIII- Which team will have the most players facing criminal charges the night prior Super Bowl XLIII? Each player legally convicted of misdemeanor charges within the calendar year awarded 0.5 points, each player convicted of Felony charges within the calendar year awarded 1.0 points. If no, or equal, criminal charges occur, bet is void.

Pittsburgh Wins 13/10 Arizona Wins 5/2 No Charges 7/10

Analysis: When it comes to criminal tomfoolery, youth always wins. Being the younger team, the Cardinals would be the favorite here. To further investigate, I picked the brain of an anonymous celebrity attorney. The better question as the great Charlie Sheen so eloquently stated, “Was [insert Cardinal player name here] simply paying the prostitute to leave”?

My Pick: Arizona Wins

C) Super Bowl XLIII - Which QB Will John Madden mention by Full name first after the Opening Kickoff? The First QB's Full Name used by John Madden after the games opening kickoff will be settled as the winner. Ben Roethlisberger +170 Kurt Warner -210

Analysis: What would you get if a linguistics professor, statistician and gambler conceived a child in a typical “what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas” scenario? A great Jerry Springer episode for one; you’d also get an incredibly random wager. Unfortunately this ugly love-child left Vegas and entered my sports betting account. How could I resist? As for the odds… clearly they’re forgetting that John Madden weighs like 300 lbs.

My Pick: Ben Roethlis”burger”…. mmmmmm…

D) Super Bowl XLIII - Will Matt Millen pick the correct team to win Super Bowl XLIII during the Pre Game Show. Matt Millen must pick a team to win Super Bowl XLIII for wagers to have action. Yes -215 No +175

Analysis: Now this is a real head scratcher. Why would I ever want to pick a Super Bowl winner, when I could have the worst general manager of all time decide for me? After watching the product that was the 2008 Lions, I wouldn’t wager Monopoly money on a “Millen team”.

My Pick: No

E) Super Bowl XLIII - Who will the Super Bowl MVP of the Game thank first? Wager is on Interview done with the Super Bowl MVP on field during the Trophy Presentation only. God 2/3 Family 21/4 Teammates 2/1 Coach 19/2 Does not Thank Anyone 5/1

Analysis: The Super Bowl MVP should thank God. Clearly he put combating disease, warfare, and world hunger on hold to provide you the competitive edge. Isn’t that what friends are for?

My Pick: God

F) Super Bowl XLIII – Where will the SuperBowl MVP announce he (or she to be PC) is going following the game? Disneyland 1/5 Locker Room 4/1 “Gentleman’s” Club 500/1 Other 15/4

Analysis: The Sports Marketer in me is screaming Disneyland. The teammate in me is begging locker room. The Realist (“Pacman” Jones) in me suggests “making it rain” in the club. After losing an arm and an ear in the plunging stock market, Mickey Mouse won’t “show [Joe MVP] the money”. Besides, they’re in Florida, technically Disney World would be more practical (save on the traveling costs).

My pick: Other

G) Super Bowl XLIII - What will happen with the Stock Market the day after Super Bowl XLIV? Simply predict whether the New York Stock Exchange Index will be up or down at the end of trading Monday February 2nd . Pittsburgh Wins Market Up 13/10 Pittsburgh Wins Market Down 13/10 Arizona Wins Market Up 33/10 Arizona Wins Market Down 33/10

Analysis: The Market will go up when the Lions win the Super Bowl. The outcome of the game?… if I had that answer I wouldn’t be in this position.

My pick: Arizona wins, Market Down

H) Super Bowl XLIII - What will be the result of the Super Bowl XLIII Coin Toss? Wager is on the opening coin toss. Heads (Coin Toss) -105

Tails (Coin Toss) -105

Analysis: My high school stats teacher is rolling around in his proverbial grave. He’s alive, but the subject matter of statistics is about as dead to me (and clearly these odds makers) as Latin. Clearly it’s tails like… 76% of the time. The other 24% can be blamed on Steve Bartman.

My Pick: Tails

I) Super Bowl XLIII - Who will be tackled by his hair first in the game? Troy Polamalu +400 Larry Fitzgerald -600

Larry Fitzgerald could shave his head and still be more likely to be tackled by his hair (dirty imagination time). To those of you non-football fans, Troy Polamulu is a defensive player and hence will not be in possession of the ball lest he intercepts it. Larry Fitzgerald on the other hand is one of the best wide receivers to play in the Super Bowl (offensive player). Although both players may “rock” the shaggy look, only one will be carrying the rock.

My pick: Larry Fitzgerald.

Answers:

Crap: B, F Fact: A, C, D, E, G, H, I

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